Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 51.050548 56.475487 62.582622 70.042632 79.015895 89.604595 103.268120
2025-02-09 43.433702 50.423955 58.954761 70.401694 85.815034 106.605128 138.286693
2025-02-16 38.346959 45.936715 55.712166 69.729399 90.282822 121.219456 176.110776
2025-02-23 34.761566 42.608040 53.128777 69.013115 93.986200 135.365380 220.445080
2025-03-02 31.766689 39.597974 50.417406 67.412786 95.666567 146.458505 266.288252
2025-03-09 29.515819 37.319382 48.380127 66.369009 97.830214 158.978293 325.661460
2025-03-16 27.165913 34.665662 45.474892 63.466068 96.042565 162.990379 367.191012
2025-03-23 26.468287 34.300060 45.911446 66.025879 104.772393 193.194781 534.882638
2025-03-30 25.160517 32.917799 44.623743 65.426569 107.171829 209.685550 689.033554
2025-04-06 23.909374 31.523731 43.180948 64.340695 108.304075 223.535970 876.576696
2025-04-13 22.463546 29.742194 40.973603 61.600342 105.301825 224.269099 987.533980
2025-04-20 22.178026 29.716093 41.612320 64.213342 114.959657 270.459223 1866.267482
2025-04-27 21.940074 29.786234 42.483093 67.557765 127.886207 343.481192 6153.403606
2025-05-04 21.295103 29.169779 42.133697 68.440032 134.998320 403.854922 43842.211601
2025-05-11 20.493498 28.248510 41.171740 67.912268 138.135176 450.791967 NaN
2025-05-18 19.742729 27.365457 40.206723 67.249486 140.748885 500.846509 NaN
2025-05-25 18.933911 26.343194 38.917059 65.718014 140.329276 532.584625 NaN
2025-06-01 18.258357 25.509077 37.914702 64.716351 141.394450 580.008634 NaN
2025-06-08 17.395793 24.324656 36.199471 61.925850 135.947730 567.141399 NaN
2025-06-15 17.260375 24.356106 36.737892 64.386903 149.136445 763.258062 NaN
2025-06-22 16.762318 23.745448 36.025367 63.810934 151.432303 859.570150 NaN
2025-06-29 16.241361 23.073467 35.156685 62.767024 151.727390 936.896745 NaN
2025-07-06 15.566658 22.112941 33.688560 60.130781 145.268980 894.531135 NaN